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lunedì, aprile 02, 2007

72° PRONOSTICO UFFICIALE - OFFICIAL TIP

Match Data:
Inghilterra - Premier League
ASTON VILLA - EVERTON
2.04.2007 ore 21:00
Pronostico - Tip: 2 EVERTON vincente Asian Handicap +1/4 Everton
Possibilità di copertura in live: Si bet365
Fiducia - Stake: 6/10
Quota - Odd:1,90 Bet365
Unità da giocare - Units to Bet: 3
Motivazione:

Molti ottimi Tipsters vedono bene questa giocata, noi proviamo a seguirli. Stake medio-basso.

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1)

"Monday Night Football comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa currently in 15th spot welcomes the visit of Everton in 7th spot. Everton after their last win over Arsenal, will want to win this match to reclaim their 6th spot currently being held by Tottenham who beat Reading 1-0 on Sunday Night. Everton goes into this match knowing that they have been unbeaten in their last four away games, managing 2 wins and 2 draws. Their last away match was a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United but they have managed some goof performances in beating the likes of Watford 3-0 as well as Wigan Athletic on their travels. The goalless draw with Merseyside rivals Liverpool is also commendable. Check this out in their last six matches, they have only been beaten by Tottenham 1-2 at home, and have managed 3 wins, and two draws in the process. As for Aston Villa, they come into this match with three defeats in their last six matches but in their last four home games only Arsenal have managed to beat them as they were beaten by The Gunners by 1-0. They did managed a goalless draw against Liverpool in their last match at Villa Park. Their wins against West Ham 1-0 and Watford 2-0 seems to have been a long time now as they have gone four games without a win at the moment. Interestingly, Aston Villa won the last time these sides met at Goodison Park by 1-0 margin. Prior tot hat Everton managed a 4-1 win the same venue at Goodison Park. However let us look at meetings between these two at Villa Park.

  • 27/12/05 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 4:0
  • 26/02/05 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 1:3
  • 25/10/03 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 0:0
  • 02 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 3:2
  • 01 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 0:0
  • 00 EPL Aston Villa vs Everton 2:1

From past meetings we can see that Aston Villa since 2000, has never recorded back to back wins over Everton when they played at Villa Park and we have to go back as far as 2000 since Aston Villa managed to win at Goodison Park and then managed to win at Villa Park as well."

2)

"Last match of the round sees Aston Villa entertain Everton at Villa Park, with both teams eager to win for different reasons. Villa are hovering dangerously above the drop zone, and a loss here will see them lying just 4 points ahead of relegation-haunted Charlton. Everton are at the other end of the table, and will look to bag a win to leapfrog Tottenham into 6th spot, and be that much closer to a European qualification spot. With everything to play for for both teams, I expect a cautious and scrappy affair, with few chances for both sides. I expect Everton to escape with at the very least a draw today, and here's why... 1) Everton are unbeaten in their last 3 games, and have only lost 1 in their last 8 in the Premiership. That one loss came against Tottenham, when Jermaine Jenas scored in the very last minute to steal all 3 points. Other than that, Everton are unbeaten in the 8-game stretch, with impressive wins over Arsenal, Blackburn, Wigan and Watford. 2) Everton are the 5th best away team in the League, and that is a great achievement seeing as only Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Bolton hold better records. Everton have played 15 away games in the League thus far, and they have only lost 5 of those games, approximately 33.34%. With a favourable handicap coming into this one, avoiding a defeat is all it takes to rip rewards - perhaps a 66.67% chance if the away trend is anything to go by. 3) Everton have an in-form striker in Andy Johnson. The England international played reasonably well against Andorra, and he should be keen to hang on to his England starting spot. To do that, however, he needs to perform week in week out. His goal that sank Arsenal last time out showed his determination, and today coming up against Villa's Olof Mellberg, he would certainly need more than determination. He needs pace - and pace is a thing Johnson has in abundance. I think he would be able to get away from Mellberg at least once today, seeing as he can turn defenders better than anyone else. 4) Aston Villa have drawn too many games. A total of 13 games drawn from 30 matches - only Fulham have more draws (ie. 14). Fulham have played a game more, however, and Villa (tagged the 'draw specialists'), would equal that if they tie Everton today. If that eventuates, the handicap of -1/4 would see them lose on the asian handicap. 5) Aston Villa's home form really has not been too brilliant as well. In fact, they have only picked up maximum points in 6 out of 15 home games in the League. With the other 9 either drawn or lost, one would expect Everton to be in that lot of 9 rather than the rarer 6. 6) Aston Villa have not won a game in their last 4 matches now, with losses against Arsenal and Reading and draws against Liverpool and Fulham. Bizarrely, in their last 18 games in the Premiership, Villa have only picked up 2 wins! Guess against who? Bottom clubs West Ham and Watford. And both are home games as well. This Villa team are in deep, deep problem at the moment. If a team could only pick up wins against the 2 lowest-ranked teams in the League out of 18 top flight matches, that is relegation material right there! Not sure how the bookmakers came up with a 1/4 handicap, because a Level handicap would have been more apt. Everton have players like Andy Johnson and Mikel Arteta to turn games on its heads... whereas Villa have players that only perform well against minor oppositions. With a European place at stake, I think David Moyes will strategise his team for not just a draw, but a win. If Villa cannot get goals from Ashley Young, John Carew or Gareth Barry, then Villa are likely to end up drawing at best... a Johnson-winner might seal this."

3)

"Aston Villa are looking to pull away from the relegation scrap which is forming just below them with a win against Europe-chasing Everton on Monday night but we expect both teams to emerge with a point. The Villans go into the clash fully aware they need about six more points to confirm their Premiership status but they're very much a club creeping over the line having picked up just two wins in the last 19 games. Although Martin O'Neill's side defeated Everton in their previous meeting this season - a 1-0 win back in November - the Toffees are currently enjoying a sound run of form as they close in on a top-five finish. Andy Johnson's last-gasp strike against Arsenal a fortnight ago gave them a precious 1-0 triumph at Goodison Park while they've only lost one in their last eight. Everton's patchy away form has also improved in recent weeks, but this won't worry the hosts, who have only conceded one goal at Villa Park since their 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Manchester United on December 23. Not even Liverpool could find the net in the last game here and although another 0-0 seems a fair shout, we're more inclined to pick an anytime goalscorer given both teams will surely show the ambition to get forward and nick one. Therefore our sights are fixed on striker John Carew to find the finishing touch to his recent impressive displays and solve Villa's lack of firepower in 2007. The big Norwegian found the net while on international duty against Bosnia last Saturday and in the Villa shirt he's being playing well enough to add to his tally of two goals so far. At 21/10 with Premierbet Carew certainly looks the value selection in this market while the 9/4 with about the draw is also worth taking."

FrankBanfi

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