88° PRONOSTICO UFFICIALE - OFFICIAL TIP

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Match Data:

INGHILTERRA - Championship

DERBY COUNTY - LUTON TOWN

http://www.football-league.premiumtv.co.uk/

http://www.dcfc.premiumtv.co.uk/

http://www.lutontown.co.uk/

20-04-2007 ore 20:45

Pronostico - Tip: Derby County vincente

Possibilità di copertura in live: Sì Bet365

Fiducia - Stake: 7/10

Quota - Odd: 1,36 Sportingbet

Unità da giocare - Units to Bet: 10

Motivazione:

• "Derby goalkeeper Stephen Bywater's successful appeal against a suspension for the red card he was shown against Ipswich means he is available. But Darren Moore serves the second game of a four-match ban and fellow defender Michael Johnson (hamstring) is injured. Luton, who will be relegated if they fail to win, wait on three players. Sol Davis (calf) and Steve Robinson (back) are fighting for fitness while Matt Spring has picked up a knock since last weekend's home defeat by Plymouth.
• Nonstante le assenze di un paio di difensori titolari nel Derby, il Luton è veramente malmesso, sia come gioco che come assenze. Il Derby vincendo si assicurerebbe per un'altra settimana la permanenza nella zona promozione diretta. Il Luton le ultime 2 partite le ha perse "solo" con un gol di scarto, ma giocava comunque con squadre nn di primo piano: QPR in lotta per non retrocedere e Plymouth, fuori da ogni tipo di gioco, inoltre, per quel che si legge in giro, a Luton pensano già alla prossima stagione in League One per cui credo non opporrano nemmeno una resistenza all'ultimo sangue.
• Derby boss Billy Davies insists automatic promotion is still on for his side despite a major setback at Ipswich on Saturday. The Rams blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 in a match of high passion that produced 10 bookings and two red cards (goalkeeper Bywater was sent-off at Rams side), with defeat meaning Birmingham went to second by wining over Leicester on Tuesday. Now Rams are two points adrift of direct promotion zone, and this young squad will be very hard to get back on the tracks for top-two. For Luton, who are now eight points adrift of safety with just three games left, there was not much to be happy about. Their Championship story was over after Saturdays defeat at Kenilworth Road against Plymouth Argyle (1:2). Manager Kevin Blackwell failed to speak to the press, instead sending assistant Sam Ellis who was very disappointed with the performance. Luton started preparing for the next (League One) season and is definitely out of the competition. Although down-table positioned teams knew to surprise The Rams on Pride Park lately (remember draws against QPR and Coventry by 1:1), on this game situation with away squad is already solved and they will probably lack of the motivation to chase the result against squad which is purposed to play in Premiership next season. Anyhow is Luton in crisis period and will not wish the victory more than Derby. Maybe Blackwell will give a chance to younger players who will try to imperss new boss for the next League One season. Risk for The Rams is too big to gamble here, and everything except convincing win of Derby would be more than sensation.
• Friday Night Football comes from the English Championships as Derby can go into third spot above Birmingham (who do not play until Sunday) with a win here. They entertain the visit of Luton Town currently bottom of the standings!Derby County will be up against Luton a side that has managed just 2 away wins all season and conceded 39 goals away from home. But check this out, since losing 1-0 to Birmingham on the 9th of March, Derby County managed to stay unbeaten for five matches before losing 2-1 away to Ipswich Town in their last fixture.Derby County are unbeaten in their last four home games coming into this match. An interesting trend that I have noticed is that each big win at home was followed by a draw. It started with the 5-1 win over Colchester United, then they drew with QPR 1-1 their next home match. The following home match they thrashed Cardiff City 3-1. The trend continued as they could only managed a 1-1 draw with Coventry City in the following home match. Should that trend prevail then expect Derby to win this match by 3-1 or 4-1 here at least.As for Luton Town, they are coming into this match in poor form losing their last three games. They were beaten by the likes of Southampton 2-0, QPR 3-2 and in their last match against Plymouth going down 2-1 at home. In fact Luton Town has also lost five of their last six games and the only game they avoided defeat was the 0-0 draw away to Burnley. And even though Luton were beaten by only one goal difference on their travels, Derby County looks capable to score more than 2 goals in this match as they have scored 10 goals in their last four home matches and is in a position to challenge Sunderland for the title as well.Take Derby County to win this match and clear the handicap of 1 ¼ here.
• Derby should win this game by a mile, they have been so good at times at home. If producing their best i see nothing but a very comfortable home win. Derby are unbeaten at home on the last 4 games and will want to put some extra pressure on the top 2, Luton however WILL be relegated if this fail to win this, they have nothing to play for as they will go down thats a certainty. Luton as stated must win they will play open and attcking football, they must however that will play right into Derbys hands who will just have so much space im sure they can score a good few goals. Banker home win. David Jones has been the best player in recnet weeks and he looks vaule for FGS.
• Derby have everything to play for here sitting 2 pts behind second-placed Birmingham, whereas Luton seem to be practically relegated. The visitors are 0-1-9 in the last 10 and without a win in 16, drawing only to Burnley, losing their last 3 in a row. They have managed 3 draws here in the last 3 visits but ... not tonight. 18th Nov 06 Luton v Derby 0 - 2 18th Mar 06 Luton v Derby 1 - 0 26th Dec 05 Derby v Luton 1 - 1 21st Feb 96 Derby v Luton 1 - 1 2nd Sep 95 Luton v Derby 1 - 2 11th Dec 94 Luton v Derby 0 - 0 20th Aug 94 Derby v Luton 0 - 0 22nd Jan 94 Luton v Derby 2 - 1 9th Oct 93 Derby v Luton 2 - 1 BBC: Derby goalkeeper Stephen Bywaters successful appeal against a suspension for the red card he was shown against Ipswich means he is available. But Darren Moore serves the second game of a four-match ban and fellow defender Michael Johnson (hamstring) is injured. Luton, who will be relegated if they fail to win, wait on three players. Sol Davis (calf) and Steve Robinson (back) are fighting for fitness while Matt Spring has picked up a knock since last weekends home defeat by Plymouth.
• I think Derby will win this one comfortably as they will still think they have a chance of getting promoted through 1st or 2nd and will make light work of a Luton side who are destined to go down having lost 9 of their last 10."

Si tratta di una di quelle partite che i bookmaker non vorrebbero quotare, quasi tutti i tipster giocano il Derby con 1 goal di handicap, così facendo si vince più del doppio.

Noi la giochiamo come vittoria semplice che con le serie cadette non si sa mai...

FrankBanfi

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